Seagate to start qualifying record-setting 50TB HDDs in 2027 — most drives are sold out through 2028
Seagate is on track to start qualification of its hard disk drives featuring 50TB-class capacities in late calendar 2027, with shipments to follow in 2028, the company announced this week. Demand for HDDs is so strong because of the rise of AI and continued strength of the cloud computing business that most drives are sold out through 2028 and negotiations about allocations for 2029 are ongoing.
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“Mozaic 5, our 5+ terabyte per disk platform, remains on track for qualification shipments in late calendar 2027,” said Dave Mosley, chief executive officer of Seagate, during the company’s earnings call with financial analysts and investors.
Mozaic 5 is the company’s 3rd generation platform for commercial hard drives based on Seagate’s heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology that succeeds Mozaic 3 and Mozaic 4. The Mozaic 5 platform enables the company to build platters with over 5TB capacity and consequently build 10-platter HDDs with over 50TB capacity featuring conventional magnetic recording (CMR) for clients seeking performance and versatility or shingled magnetic recording (SMR) for clients that need maximum capacity to maximize their storage density.
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If Seagate preps to initiate ‘qualification shipments’ of its 50TB-class hard drives in late calendar 2027, then it means that by the time the HDDs have passed all the manufacturer’s internal validations, including reliability and durability of heads and media, shock and vibration tests, and longevity tests among many others. It typically takes server OEMs about two to six months to qualify new HDDs for their offerings, whereas hyperscale cloud service providers usually qualify them for six to 12 months. In any case, it is safe to say that Seagate is on track to ship 50TB-class hard drives in calendar 2028 with significant volume ramp in 2029.
These 50TB-class HDDs will come to market just in time to meet exabyte demand from the AI and cloud sectors. Most of Seagate’s nearline HDDs have been allocated for 2027 and 2029 under long-term supply agreements (LTAs), with some customers looking to secure supply in 2029.
“Based on the long-term supply agreements in place today, the vast majority of our nearline exabytes are now allocated into calendar 2028,” Mosley said. “[…] As our strategic relationships deepen, many are actively seeking to extend planning horizons through 2029 and beyond, which we believe reflects growing confidence in their own long-term infrastructure needs.”
Seagate’s LTAs not only define exabytes, but also product configuration and prices. As it turns out, both are set for the ‘entirety of calendar 2027.’ Meanwhile, Seagate is flexible on pricing of drives that are not covered by LTAs as well as newly signed LTAs, so the company is implying price increases, following makers of 3D NAND and SSDs.
“We continue to execute our value-based pricing strategy, balancing a stronger demand environment with our objective of supporting sustainable, profitable growth over the long term,” Mosley said.
“Our volume was a little bit higher in fiscal Q4,” said Gianluca Romano, chief financial officer of Seagate, during the call. “We think can be maybe a little bit of output available in fiscal Q1. Of course, we are pricing that increased output at a very good price right now.”
The key advantage of Seagate’s high-capacity drives based on the company’s Mozaic platforms is, of course, its HAMR technology, which is gradually increasing its share within the company’s nearline HDD shipments. HAMR-based products accounted for a 40% exabyte share of Seagate’s nearline HDDs as of early July and are on track to account for 70% of the company’s nearline exabytes shipments by early July 2027. Moreover, nearly half of Seagate’s nearline capacity will rely on its 40TB-class HDDs featuring its Mozaic 4 platform.
“We expect to achieve our next ramp milestone by exiting calendar 2026 with 50% of our HAMR exabytes on our Mozaic 4 platform,” Mosley said.
For the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2026 ended on July 3, Seagate earned $3.629 billion, up from $2.444 billion it earned in the same quarter a year ago. The company’s gross margin totaled 52.3%, up from 37.4% in Q4 FY2025, and its net income reached $1.294 billion. The company’s FY2026 revenue was $12.195 billion, up from $9.097 billion in the prior year. The net income increased more than twice year-over-year to $3.184 billion, with gross margin reaching 45.6%.
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